MIDDLE POWERS AND THE RISE OF CHINA. A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE FOREIGN POLICY OF AUSTRALIA AND THE PHILIPPINES AT THE TURN OF THE SECOND AND THIRD DECADE OF THE 21ST CENTURY

Abstract

The evolution of Sino-American rivalry is a key determinant that affects regional (Indo-Pacific) and global international relations. The main consequence of this process is the formation of a dualistic hierarchy and a bipolar international structure that is centred around the United States and the PRC. It raises important strategic challenges for the group of the so-called middle powers that aim for the best possible political relations with both the US and China in the Indo-Pacific. The purpose of this publication is a comparative study of the foreign policy of two middle powers: Australia and the Philippines, after 2016. The choice of such a study results from the similar position of both countries in the international structure: on the one hand, since the early 1950s, they are treaty allies with the United States, and on the other hand, they want close economic relations with China. However, at the same time, after 2016, both countries began to implement different political strategies: during the first period of Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency, the Philippines pursued a pro-Chinese foreign policy, while Australia increasingly sought to balance the
“Chinese threat”, both at the domestic and international level. The main purpose of the article is to identify which factors at the level of the domestic political system caused the different strategies of both countries and to verify the effectiveness of their implementation in the period under study.